A declination is binding. A correction is visible. Nothing disappears because the record became inconvenient.
ERR-20260811-01 ·
Withdrawal of Third Scoring Axis (Rarity Evidence)
Adopted
Superseded record
The original scoring model (historically designated SOtL Event Index v3) evaluated events across three five-point axes for a total score of 15: Mechanism Complexity (0–5), Closure Deficit (0–5), and Rarity Evidence (0–5).
Current record
Explanation Burden (method key sei_v4) is scored strictly across two five-point axes totaling 10: Mechanism Complexity (0–5) and Closure Deficit (0–5). The third axis is withdrawn from public scoring and database calculations.
Reason
During blind validation testing conducted on August 11, 2026, with three independent raters (Pilot A), the Rarity Evidence axis demonstrated no shared operational interpretation. Two raters assigned zero to nearly two-thirds of the sample (19 and 18 zero-scores out of 30 events) by treating the absence of a stated statistical denominator as zero, while the third rater assigned zero only once by scoring how rare an event appeared. The axis therefore did not measure a single shared construct.
What remains preserved
The underlying definitions, calibration anchors, and scores for Axis A (Mechanism Complexity) and Axis B (Closure Deficit) remain methodologically valid and form the complete basis of the current Explanation Burden index.
ERR-20260811-02 ·
Withdrawal of Increasing-Rarity Hypothesis
Adopted
Superseded record
The publication previously asserted that post-2008 events (described under retired “post-activation” terminology) were statistically rarer as well as more difficult to explain than pre-2008 events.
Current record
Under the 0–16 Turn, the Archive asserts only that post-2008 events are measurably more difficult to explain (exhibiting higher Mechanism Complexity and Closure Deficit) than pre-2008 events. The publication makes no claim of increasing statistical rarity.
Reason
Blind scoring of thirty historical events in Pilot A did not support the increasing-rarity hypothesis. Composite separation between eras came from the two surviving explanatory dimensions, with the larger contribution from Mechanism Complexity, while on the withdrawn rarity axis, pre-2008 events scored marginally higher than post-2008 events. The data ran directly counter to the hypothesis of increasing rarity.
What remains preserved
The finding of measurable explanatory divergence between eras remains supported (Archive median 6.0/10 vs. pre-2008 median 3.0/10, permutation p = 0.0099), confirming that post-2008 football is distinguished by explanatory resistance rather than event scarcity.
ERR-20260811-03 ·
Replacement of Single-Author Scores with Blind-Panel Medians
Adopted
Superseded record
Archive scores were originally assigned by a single author with full knowledge of the working hypothesis and case classifications.
Current record
Fifteen Archive cases (Cases 001–003, 005–010, and 012–017) carry Explanation Burden scores established as the median of three independent raters evaluating blinded event packets. Cases 004 and 011 were outside the initial pilot run and remain unscored pending a future supplementary panel. Case 018 was adopted in a subsequent adjudication with its core factual event verified, and remains unscored without entering Pilot A diagnostics.
Reason
Single-author scoring with hypothesis awareness failed to meet the publication’s standards for objective, reproducible measurement. Utilizing blinded independent raters reduces the risk of hypothesis-aware scoring and establishes verifiable scoring provenance.
What remains preserved
All qualitative narrative reconstructions, source citations, and assigned Archive Roles remain preserved; only the quantitative scoring provenance was replaced.
